UP elections overwhelmed by the twin factors of novelty and rebellion

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“The news is staged, anticipated, reported, analysed until all interest is wrung from it and abandoned for some new novelty,” said Thomas Griffith, one of the most powerful American editors at Time.

Indeed, that’s precisely what happens in developing political stories, moreso in the run-up to elections almost everywhere. The novelty factor matters most — whether it’s in Donald Trump’s USA (2016) or Narendra Modi’s India (2014).

That the Indian voter falls for the novelty factor especially when it’s coupled with rebellion is a well-settled issue. There needn’t be any further debate over it. Recent history is replete with relevant examples. Just forget what psephologists are now hinting at through their perplexing maze of numbers. Their science, or call it art, of prediction has been falling flat repeatedly. You need to recall what happened to the business of forecasting in the US presidential elections, Brexit referendum, and Delhi and Bihar Assembly polls.

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