With hours to go before the Americans elect their next President, Hillary Clinton has about a 90% chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump, reveals poll the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
The former secretary of State Hillary Clinton was leading by about 45% to Trump’s 42% in the popular vote and and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory, the survey found
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
For Donald Trump to win he will have to take Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of only 3 percentage points. At the same time, Trump must hold onto the traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican bastion, Utah. Any combination of two losses in the three states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost assure Clinton’s victory.
If Clinton wins North Carolina, it probably means African Americans are turning out to vote at a similar rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by four points nationally.
The situation will be crucial for Donald Trump, if Clinton wins Florida. Then she will just needs to win one of the three big swing states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump would have to win all three. If he wins Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and Michigan or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday. The survey says that Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania. Still, a surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout among black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
