According to the survey, Clinton enjoys the tiniest of leads in Florida, 48% to Trump’s 47. Clinton leads Trump by 75 points among black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics. But Trump enjoys a 30 point lead among likely white voters. Clinton’s success in Florida depends on heavy turnout among black voters. Without it, the race becomes razor-thin, even with a large increase in Hispanic ballots.
If Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern swing states have been decided, eyes will turn to Arizona. Trump led Clinton by five points on Sunday, but Arizona had moved steadily toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project. It is also a state where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in Clinton’s favor.
If Trump is in a position to win after Arizona, he could still be tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to the end.
Opinion polls have Trump up by five points or more in Utah. A McMullin upset could set up a low-probability scenario where neither Clinton or Trump reaches the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. The election would then be decided by the Republican-controlled US House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have a three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native and former CIA operative.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.
Sourced from agencies, feature image courtesy: bbci.co.uk
